Top Forex News Today 21/04/2025
Breaking Update
Global financial markets are experiencing sharp fluctuations today due to trade tensions between the United States and China, and concerns about the independence of the US Federal Reserve.
Market Overview
Global financial markets on April 21, 2025, are gripped by heightened volatility as the US Dollar plunges to its lowest level since April 2022, driven by escalating US-China trade tensions and doubts over Federal Reserve independence. Despite Easter Monday closures in major markets like the UK, France, and Germany, US stock and bond markets remain open, with bearish US stock futures signaling risk-off sentiment. Gold hits a fresh record high, and safe-haven currencies like the Japanese Yen gain traction, while the absence of high-tier data leaves trade war developments and Fed rhetoric as key drivers.
98.31 (3-year low)
$3,370.17 (new record high)
$66.77 per barrel
US President Donald Trump launched a series of attacks against Fed Chair Jerome Powell on Thursday, with his team evaluating whether they could fire Powell, a move that has great consequence for the central bank’s independence and for global markets. As trade war escalation continues, investors are questioning the US dollar’s traditional status as a safe haven.
Major Currency Pair Movements
EUR/USD
The euro continues to rise strongly against the US dollar, exceeding the 1.14 level to reach its highest level in three years. This increase is supported by the continued weakness of the US dollar amid concerns about the trade war, with analysts expecting the pair to reach 1.3 by 2026.
“Nature provides balance in everything. If a country’s goal is to reduce or eliminate its foreign trade deficit, it should know that capital may flee the stock market, leading to a depreciation of its currency.” – Forex market analysts
GBP/USD
The GBP/USD pair continued its rise for the tenth consecutive week, reaching its highest level since October last year. Despite low inflation data in the UK (2.6%), analysts expect the Bank of England to maintain high interest rates as inflation is expected to rise again.
Technical analysts indicate that technical indicators such as the Relative Strength Index (RSI) and Awesome Oscillator continue to rise, suggesting a continuation of the upward trend towards the 1.3425 level.
USD/JPY
The Japanese yen continues to advance against the US dollar, benefiting from its status as a safe-haven currency amid growing concerns about the global economy. With ongoing trade tensions between the United States and China, investors are turning to the yen as a safe alternative to the US dollar.
There is a large amount of forex options expiring at the 140.00 level today, which may lead to additional volatility around this level.
USD/INR
The Indian rupee rose by 33 paise against the US dollar in early trading today, supported by the dollar index falling to its lowest level in three years, positive trend in domestic equities, and foreign investment fund inflows.
Expectations indicate that the USD/INR pair will trade within the range of 85.00-85.50, and a decisive break below 85.00 could lead to a sharp appreciation in the value of the rupee.
Impact of Trade Policies on Forex Market
The escalation of trade tensions between the United States and China has increased concerns about global economic slowdown, prompting investors to search for alternative safe havens to the US dollar. This has led to:
- A sharp decline in the dollar index by more than 9% since the beginning of the year.
- Record high gold prices, reaching $3,370 per ounce.
- Decline in global stock markets, especially the technology sector.
- A shift in investment strategies towards more stable currencies such as the Swiss franc and Japanese yen.
One analyst stated: “The US dollar is no longer a safe investment option as gold, the Swiss franc, and the Japanese yen have emerged as more reliable alternatives, making it likely that the US dollar will experience a sharp decline due to the deterioration of the US economy and capital flight from the United States as a result of declining confidence in US assets.”
Important Economic Events for the Week (April 21-25, 2025)
| Day | Time | Currency | Event | Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tuesday, April 22 | 05:00 PM | USD | Richmond Manufacturing Index | -7 (Previous: -4) |
| Tuesday, April 22 | 05:00 PM | EUR | ECB President Lagarde Speech | – |
| Wednesday, April 23 | 11:00 AM | EUR | Eurozone Manufacturing PMI (Flash) | 47.4 (Previous: 48.6) |
| Wednesday, April 23 | 11:30 AM | GBP | UK Manufacturing PMI (Flash) | 44.0 (Previous: 44.9) |
| Wednesday, April 23 | 04:45 PM | USD | US Manufacturing PMI (Flash) | 49.3 (Previous: 50.2) |
| Thursday, April 24 | 11:00 AM | EUR | German IFO Business Climate Index | 85.2 (Previous: 86.7) |
| Thursday, April 24 | 03:30 PM | USD | Durable Goods Orders (m/m) | 1.5% (Previous: 0.9%) |
| Friday, April 25 | 02:30 AM | JPY | Tokyo Core CPI (y/y) | 3.1% (Previous: 2.4%) |
| Friday, April 25 | 09:00 AM | GBP | Retail Sales (m/m) | -0.4% (Previous: 1.0%) |
Trading Recommendations
Bullish View
- EUR/USD: Buy with take-profit at 1.16 and stop-loss at 1.13.
- GBP/USD: Buy with take-profit at 1.3425 and stop-loss at 1.3200.
- XAU/USD (Gold): Buy with take-profit at $3,420 and stop-loss at $3,300.
Bearish View
- USD/JPY: Sell with take-profit at 138.50 and stop-loss at 141.00.
- USD/CAD: Sell with take-profit at 1.3350 and stop-loss at 1.3550.
- USD/CHF: Sell with take-profit at 0.9050 and stop-loss at 0.9250.
Important Note:
These recommendations are based on current technical and fundamental market analysis. Always ensure appropriate risk management and do not risk more than 1-2% of capital on any single trade.
Technical Analysis of Major Pairs
EUR/USD
The EUR/USD pair continues to rise strongly, surpassing key resistance levels. Moving averages indicate a continuation of the uptrend, with the price moving above the 50 and 200-day averages. The RSI indicates a slight overbought condition at 75, which may indicate the possibility of a short-term correction. Key resistance levels at 1.1550 and 1.1650, while support levels at 1.1350 and 1.1250.
GBP/USD
The GBP/USD pair has broken through the medium-term ascending channel and continued to rise strongly to reach 1.3295. Momentum indicators such as the Stochastic and RSI indicate a continuation of buyer strength. Breaking the 1.3300 level will open the way for further rise towards 1.3425, which is the highest level since September last year. The daily trading pattern shows a breakthrough of an ascending triangle pattern, which enhances the likelihood of continuing the rise.
USD/JPY
The pair’s downward trend continues, with the formation of a head and shoulders pattern on the daily chart, indicating further weakness. Breaking the 140.00 support level could open the way for a deeper decline towards 138.50 and 136.75. The 50, 100, and 200-day moving averages intersect in a bearish manner, confirming the strength of the downward trend. Key resistance levels are at 141.50 and 143.00.
